How to invest in mutual funds?
How to achieve the right diversification in Mutual Funds?
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) was developed by Eugene Fama who argued that stocks always trade at their fair value, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. So it is better to buy and hold broad index fund rather than picking individual stocks. Fama believed that returns earned above the index are an outcome of pure luck. However, research indicated that there are sources of Alpha (excess returns over benchmark) in plain sight because of behavioural biases of market participants, or structural/liquidity issues of the market. These factors are acknowledged by Eugene Fama who went on to publish 5 factor model. Andrew L. Berkin and Larry E. Swedroe have highlighted following strategies as primary source of Alpha over long term in their book “Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing”.
Every fund manager follows a process and has a natural inclination to some of the following Process/Factors that leads to outperformance. We study what are these Processes and why they work in long term.
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MoneyWorks4Me method for rating and ranking mutual funds for SIP
MoneyWorks4Me rating and ranking of funds for SIP is available to subscribers only. Moneyworks4Me is not a rating and ranking agency, however it is required that users have a way of selecting funds and building a Portfolio. The method used by it are described below to enable users to understand the logic behind the rating and ranking Subscriber will find more details on this in the various content made available from time to time. In case you need more please write to besafe@moneyworks4Me.com
MoneyWorks4Me rates and ranks mutual funds based on the following data-driven system:
- Performance Consistency: This is measure based on whether the fund has beaten the benchmark index consistently. For this we compare the 3-year rolling returns of the fund with the benchmark for a minimum of 5 years and preferable 10 years. The period of rolling is one month and holding period is 3 years. Fund are color-coded Green on Performance when the fund beats the benchmark more than 90% of the time. It is Orange if it beats 80% to 90% of the time and Red if less than 80%. Funds with less than 5 year data are color-coded Grey.
- Quality of Portfolio Holding: Moneyworks4Me has color-coded stocks as Green, Orange and Red based on whether the company's performance has generated a ROCE above a threshold level (cost of capital) over 10 years (minimum 6 years) and generated positive Free Cash Flow. For Banks it checks whether ROE is greater than 15% and sales has grown over previous year. Stocks that perform consistently on these combined metrics are color-coded Green (min score 14 out of 20), Orange (between 8 and 14) and Red (less than 8 out of 20). Fund are color-coded Green provided the portfolio has 70% holding in Green stocks but not more than 20% in Red stocks. Funds with more than 20% Red stocks in the portfolio are color-coded Red. The rest are Orange funds
Funds ranking in screeners: Performance Consistency and Quality are two parameters used for ranking funds for SIP. The ranking as follows GG, GO, GR, OG, OO, OR, RG, RO and RR.
With the same color-coded funds, the one with the higher Average 3-year rolling returns (over 5 to 10 years), the number that appears in the Performance tag, ranks higher.
Here is the summary:
The third tag Upside Potential is not relevant for SIP. It is relevant for lumpsum investments in Mutual Funds.
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Q Very Good
Q Somewhat Good
Q Not Good
V+UnderValued (UV)
V Somewhat UV
V Fair Value
V Somewhat OV
V+ OverValued (OV)
Buy quality Stocks when they are available at reasonable prices and supported by an upward price trend and Sell when they are Overvalued using the Decizen Rating System. Covers 3500+ stocks
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