It was October 2009 and the MoneyWorks4me.com team was busy valuating companies which had released their latest quarterly results. This was a time when Sensex was hovering around 17,000 levels. All news items suggested a probable correction in the markets. Even we thought that the Sensex PE was on the higher side. But there was no way to be sure. This made us think. How can we say for sure whether the Sensex is actually overvalued? Was it really time to sell your stock because of the fear of another correction?
We are used to seeing the Sensex fluctuate every minute. It may be due to news, sentiments, rumours about Anil Ambani attending Reliance Inds. AGM, the world celebrating China’s move to free their currency and other such events. All of us experienced this when the Sensex reached the all-time high of nearly 21,000 in January 2008. And then we saw absolute mayhem in the later months with the index hitting 8,500 in November 2008. The market then rose only to double-dip in March 2009 before it regained composure. Then, within 6 months the Sensex had doubled. In retrospect, all of us love to say, “I told you man. 21,000 was THE peak!” But, at that time most of us stood starry-eyed, believing Sensex would touch 30,000.
And so the question arose. Can we find “The Right Value” for the Sensex?
We at MoneyWorks4me are ardent followers of Benjamin Graham who said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Over a longer period, the market will invariably reflect its intrinsic value based on its earnings. But is there “a weighing machine” which can give us the intrinsic value for the market as a whole? We at MoneyWorks4me provide the intrinsic value (MRP) for all listed Indian companies. So, wasn’t having an intrinsic value for the Sensex as a whole the next logical extension? If we could do this, we would have a tool that could enable us to enter stocks at bargain levels and help us exit when things start getting over-exuberant!
The task at hand was huge. But we knew we were on to something big here. So, we got to work! A lot of work actually! We read voluminous data on the Sensex. We got real time and historical data from the BSE website. We analysed and valued the Sensex companies, crunched numbers and skipped our lunch! But we were determined, more than ever, to find the solution. And we got the solution! It is
Sensex@MRP – The Right Value for the Sensex!
A solution which could help you ascertain whether the market is over-reacting or under-reacting, whether it is grossly depressed or irrationally exuberant. A solution which could help you not lose your shirt in the Stock market and infact can help you make handsome returns.
We were ecstatic. We finally had our lunch!
But how exactly did we find the solution? And do we have any proof that the solution works? Yes, we do! But let’s not jump the gun. All these questions will be answered in the next blog.
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