IMD forecast of ‘above normal’ rainfall likely to fall flat this year

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall in the country but is likely to fall flat as nearly 15 days left for the monsoon to end officially and current overall deficiency in the country is 5 percent. While 86 percent of the country has received ‘normal’ and ‘above normal’ rainfall, the figure may go down when withdrawal of the southwest monsoon will begin this week.

Last year’s monsoon was hit by El Nino. This year it was expected that there will be a gradual transition to La Nina phenomenon but that has not taken place and current phase could be described as neutral, instead of that India got lower rains in the second half. Further, according to IMD rainfall in September could be up to 15 percent less than average. Last month, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency had lowered its forecast from 'above normal' to 'normal'. But the IMD had refused to make an amends in its forecast, saying an assessment could be made only after September 30.

The La Nina, which was expected to help monsoon, and give 'excess' rains in September is yet to start. El Nino is the unusual warming of sea-surface Pacific waters off the South American coast, while La Nina is the positive phase of the El Nino and is associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures.