India’s import will overtake export in next five years: HSBC

India’s import will rise faster than the exports in the next five years, even though it is trying its level best to keep the balance of trade on a positive track. Investment Banking Giant HSBC in its report stated that, ‘India's import growth will overtake its export growth in the next five years. The forecast is consistent with a developing global shift where traditionally export-driven emerging markets will become global trade hubs and important facilitators of international economic growth.’

According to the report, India’s import will rise at an average rate of 7% y-o-y for the next five years leaving behind the export, which is forecasted to be at 5%. However, as per the World Trade Organization, the country's exports grew 2.1% to $78.64 billion in the January-March period this year against the 21.8% growth in imports to $122.47 billion.

The slowdown in exports is mainly due to the worsening global economic conditions, whereas surging crude oil prices have made imports expensive. This has tightened the current account deficit, which is at its high of 4.3% for FY12 and also one of the reasons to the recent fall in rupee.

On the other hand, export to China will move up at an average of 8% till the year 2016, whereas imports will be up at 11%. Apart from this, exports to other emerging markets like Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia will grow around 11%, while those to Middle East and African nations like UAE and Nigeria will rise by 10%.