Global paddy production forecast for 2012 revised downward: FAO

The global paddy production forecast for 2012 has been revised downwards by 7.8 million tonnes to 724.5 million tonnes, as per the report compiled by United Nation's body Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). This downward revision can be attributed to deficit rainfall in the country where the monsoon rains were 22% short of the Long Period Average (LPA) by mid-July.

For the current year, FAO earlier made a forecast in April that global paddy production would be at 732.3 million tonnes (488.2 million tonnes on a milled basis) whereas it is expected now that the total production would be in tune of 724.5 million tonnes (483.1 million tonnes on a milled basis). The world paddy production in 2011 is pegged at 713 million tonnes (about 476 million tonnes on milled basis).

Apart from India, countries like Cambodia, the Chinese Province of Taiwan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea and Nepal are the ones where production forecasts have been reduced as they may see a production drop in 2012. On the other hand, the global body on the farm sector noted that the 2012 output forecasts in China (Mainland), Indonesia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Thailand and the United States were all scaled up.

In the current monsoon season, which runs from June to September, rainfall were deficit by 18% so far which in turn has affected sowing of major kharif (summer sowing) crops like rice, pulses and oilseeds, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD). So far in the ongoing kharif season, the acreage under rice in the country fell by 10% to 233.68 lakh hectare compared to 258.6 lakh hectare in the same period last season. India produced a record 104.32 million tonnes of rice in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) against 95.98 million tonnes of the grain in the 2010-11 crop year.