Ind-Ra flags widening RE commissioning-transmission gap as key credit risk

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has flagged the widening gap between renewable energy (RE) commissioning and transmission readiness as an emerging credit risk for the sector. It noted that of the 196 GW RE pipeline expected to be commissioned by FY32, around 112 GW remains aligned with transmission schedules, while nearly 84 GW faces delays in general network access (GNA) operationalisation, pointing to a persistent transmission execution gap.  

Ind-Ra projects a 32 GW mismatch between generation and transmission for projects to be commissioned by H2FY27. This gap could widen further to 40 GW, if interstate transmission system (ISTS) commissioning is delayed by another three months. If a project operates ahead of transmission readiness, it must use temporary general network access (T-GNA), which can lead to curtailment due to grid constraints. Ind-Ra-rated renewable projects have so far not faced material rating pressure from transmission delays, supported by repayment moratoriums, liquidity buffers, and sponsor support mechanisms. However, prolonged transmission bottlenecks could weaken capital structure and increase dependence on sponsors. 

It further said utility-backed projects benefit from partial protection, as the scheduled commercial operation date (SCOD) under power purchase agreements (PPA) is allowed till 30-60 days post-receipt of the final GNA. For commercial & industrial projects, risks could arise if consumers have the option to exit the project as per respective PPA terms due to prolonged delays in final GNA and consequent supply being lower than committed level during T-GNA period. Ind-Ra believes the sector’s key challenge is no longer transmission planning, but its timely execution. Although around 57% of the RE pipeline remains synchronised with transmission commissioning schedules, nearly 84 GW continues to face delays ranging from a few months to more than a year.