Benchmark indices likely to make gap-down opening amid elevated crude oil prices

Indian benchmark indices are likely to make a gap-down opening on Wednesday amid cautiousness ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with investors also tracking elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Traders may adopt a wait and watch approach ahead of India's overall industrial production data - measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) - to be out later in the day. Meanwhile, the stock market will see the debut of Jio Platforms and Paras Healthcare today.

Some of the key factors to be watched: 

Higher crude oil prices: Oil prices rose after an attack on a refinery in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, renewed concerns around the risks to supply in the Middle East stemming from the conflict with Iran and its proxies.

Fresh bad-loan generation may rise in FY27; private banks face greater pressure: Icra said fresh non-performing assets (NPA) in the banking sector are likely to increase in the current fiscal, with private sector banks expected to face relatively higher pressure due to their exposure to unsecured retail and micro, small and medium enterprise loans.

India aims to become major exporter to China, ASEAN: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has expressed hope that India would emerge as a major exporter of goods and services to China and the ASEAN region in the coming years. He added that India was open to promoting free and fair trade with every country.

RBI Governor urges States to adopt prudent borrowing, quality spending: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has advised state governments to adopt prudent borrowing strategies and ensure quality spending, highlighting the importance of long-term fiscal health.

India faces no pressure to halt Russian oil purchases: Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri denied that India was under any pressure to stop buying Russian oil. He said Indian refiners would purchase crude from suppliers offering the most competitive prices as the country prioritises energy security amid global market uncertainties.

On global front: The US markets ended higher on Tuesday led by a rally in AI-related tech stocks, while investors watched out for third-quarter earnings. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday following overnight rally on Wall Street.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended largely unchanged in a highly volatile trade on Tuesday amid persistently elevated crude oil prices, selling in blue-chip bank stocks and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Some pessimism came as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) returned to selling in the cash market after a day's break, selling shares worth Rs 1,462.49 crore on October 26. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 8.08 points or 0.01% to 73,598.67 and the CNX Nifty was down by 3.45 points or 0.02% to 22,749.75. 

Some of the important factors in trade: 

Centre committed to fiscal consolidation, targets public debt at 50% of GDP by 2030: Highlighting the government’s aim to cap the national debt at 50% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2030, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has reiterated the Centre’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, citing annual budgets as evidence of its efforts to rein in the fiscal deficit.

India, US conclude most of discussions for proposed bilateral trade pact: Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said that most of the discussions between India and the US on the proposed bilateral trade deal have been completed, and the two sides are now fine-tuning the agreement.

Overseas investments by Indian firms dip 14% in September 2026: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest report has showed that India's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) commitments declined by 13.96% to $4,344.33 million in September 2026 as against $5,049.32 million in September 2025, with decline in loan and guarantee commitments.