The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the country may get below normal monsoon this year, which if proves to be correct could jeopardize a fragile economic recovery, push up food prices and consequentially make life difficult for the next government.
In its first long period forecast for this year, IMD forecasted there was a 56% probability of below normal to deficient rains, as compared to a 44% chance of rains being normal or better. Further, the department also acknowledging the shadow of El Nino on this year's monsoon said there was a 60% chance of for the phenomenon that is usually linked to droughts in India. However, the predictions have an error margin of 5%. The department will issue a second forecast on monsoon in June.
While predicting below-normal monsoon this year, IMD also released forecasts of two experimental models, one of which predicted deficient rains at 88% of normal. However, the weather department preferred going with the operational forecast which is showing 95%.
IMD director general L S Rathore unveiled that while several models were referred, the department issued forecasts by two such models. One, the monsoon mission model, predicting 96% of the long period average and second the ESSO IMD seasonal forecast showing 88% of the LPA.
IMD has been periodically updating its methodology for the complex task of predicting the monsoon. The department, however, continues to battle the impression that its accuracy drops markedly when rains fail.
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