El Nino Pacific ocean warming event is possible in 2014 as the Australian Met department, in its latest outlook of El Nino, has said that there's a 50 percent chance of the weather pattern developing in the next few months. Australian Met department highlighted that the majority of international climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate Central Tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Nino thresholds by the end of the year.
El Nino can impact the agriculture production in the country as EI Nino in winters is often associated with heavy rainfall in the north, north-east and north-west India, and warmer months from December to March, particularly in the north.
The development of El Nino event would add to the worries about an inadequate monsoon. However, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has also lowered its prospects from 70 percent to just 50 percent, while American National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Centre has also reduced the chances of an El Nino this winter from 80 percent to 65 percent. Moreover, India Meteorological Department ( IMD) also expects that the odds of a strong El Nino was less this year, and was unlikely to make a huge impact on the Indian weather.
El Nino also known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is part of a weather system which couples sea surface temperatures warming in the Pacific with strengthening in trade winds to create El Nino conditions. So far this year the warming of the pacific surface waters has not been matched by changes in the atmosphere that create the sustainable conditions for an El Nino.