The met department has downgraded its forecast for India’s June-September monsoon from 93% to 88% Long Period Average (LPA), with north-west region of the country expected to be hit the most. Although, the latest prediction, has an error margin of 4 percentage points either way but a rainfall of less than 90% is considered to be a drought year.
In April, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast that monsoon rains would be 93% of the average, which is categorised as “below normal”. Now, with the revised projection of 88%, the monsoon is categorised as “deficient”.
The North-West region which includes Delhi NCR, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan will be affected as per the forecast with it receiving around 85% of rainfall of the LPA. The season rainfall is likely to be 90% of LPA over Central India, 92% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 90% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of plus or minus 8% The projection of low rainfall, which may be attributed to the El-Nino phenomena, is likely to trigger fears about drought situation in some parts of the country.
The rains are vital not only for agriculture and rural incomes but also the broader economy, the Southwest monsoon which begins its four-month journey across India on June 1 in Kerala, is also crucial for power, drinking and irrigation. After missing its normal date of onset, Southwest Monsoon is now expected to hit Kerala coast on June 5. An advanced government estimate of winter output made before the recent unseasonal rains had already projected a 2.6% decline due to effects of a late drought.
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