Surging food prices accelerates inflation to 6.95% in February

14 Mar 2012 Evaluate

The pace of inflation unexpectedly quickened to 6.95% in February, driven largely by an increase in food prices like vegetables and protein-based items. According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the wholesale price index (WPI) went up to 6.95% in February 2012 as compared to 6.55% in January. The rise has come in as a surprise as most analysts had forecasted the inflation number to be around 6.75%. Core inflation (which excludes certain items that face volatile price movements), however has seen a declining trend which has fuelled hope of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank.

Provisional data released by the government showed that food inflation was 6.07% in February against (-) 0.52% in January 2012 and was largely responsible for the increased number. Prices of pulses rose by 7.91% and that of vegetables by 1.52%. Egg, meat and fish became dearer by 20% as compared to 18.63% in January. Milk became expensive by 11.7%, while prices of rice and cereals increased by 1.53% and 1.71% respectively. However, the prices of potato and onion declined by 2.22% and 48.50% year-on-year in February. Food articles have 14.3% share in the WPI basket.

Manufactured items became costlier 5.75% year-on-year in February against 6.49% in the previous month. Among manufactured items, iron grew dearer by 15.82% and edible oil prices rose 7.57% year-on-year. Tobacco products moved up by 10.1% and basic metals became 10.44% expensive. Prices of manufactured items have a weight of around 65% in the WPI basket.

Prices of fuel and power rose by 12.8% in January as compared to 14.21% last month. Inflation in overall primary articles stood at 6.28% in February as compared to 2.25% in January. Non-food primary articles, which include fibres and oilseeds, showed moderation to (-) 2.56% in February. In January, inflation was 0.55%.

The headline inflation numbers for December 2011 was revised upwards to 7.74% from the provisional estimate of 7.47%.

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