Reconfirming its earlier forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the country is all set to receive above-normal monsoon rains this year and retained its earlier ‘above normal’ forecast for this year’s southwest monsoon, at 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) and above the 50-year average of 89 cm.
IMD in an update to its April monsoon forecast, said the monsoon is expected to be well-distributed across the country and that rains over north-west India would be 8% more; over Central and South India 13% more and over north-east India 6% less than what these regions historically got. Rainfall is expected to be 94% of the 50-year average in the nation’s northeast region. IMD has also forecast 107% of normal rainfall in July and 104% in August.
In its second forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the odds overwhelmingly favoured an above-normal monsoon. The second half of June is expected to receive more rainfall than the first half, and due to a La Nina situation, more rains are likely during September.
The monsoon is considered normal when the rainfall is 96-104% of the LPA and is considered above normal when it is 105-110% of the LPA. The above normal rains are good news for rain-fed Kharif or monsoon crops such as rice, coarse grains, soyabean, pulses and cotton. If the forecast pans out well, it will provide the much-needed relief to rural India. Agricultural output will rebound from very sluggish performance in the past two year. The monsoon season is crucial, with its onset marking the beginning of the sowing season for monsoon crops in the country.
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