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India’s economy may grow at 7.9% in FY17 if monsoon is normal: Crisil

12 Jul 2016 Evaluate

Global ratings agency Crisil has said that India’s economy will grow at 7.9 percent in the current financial year compared with 7.6 percent in fiscal 2016, if the country receives normal monsoon as it will boost agriculture growth and lift rural demand and if the global situation does not worsen further.

Crisil in its latest report the Indian economy - Choosing trend over cycle - evaluated the quality of growth generated by the Narendra Modi-led government and said that if the rains are normal, it would give agriculture a one-time growth kick, particularly given the low-base effect of the two previous years that should lift sagging rural demand and extension to overall GDP growth.

The report further highlighted that the growth is slowly improving which is more sustainable unlike the 'rubber-band' recovery seen after the global financial crisis of 2008. Noting that the economy's modest recovery has been shaped by 'good luck' on crude oil and commodities, Crisil said the medium-term outlook will be shaped by progress on initiatives such as cleaning up of bank balance sheets and successful implementation of GST. Besides, financial inclusion through initiatives like Jan Dhan and digitisation, among others, will also potentially have a transformative impact on the economy's growth.

However, the report cautioned that the core physical infrastructure issues such as seamless availability of electricity, creation of road network and social aspects like health and education are crucial to sustaining growth and added that the current fiscal, therefore, will be closely watched for more reforms and relentless implementation of executive and policy actions already announce.


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