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Trade deficit likely to be in range of $100-110 billion for FY 2016-17: CARE

27 Jan 2017 Evaluate

Ratings agency, Care Ratings in its latest report has estimated that the country’s overall trade deficit may be in the range of $100-110 billion for the financial year 2016-17. The agency has said that, in the first nine months, trade deficit has improved sharply by almost 25 per cent as compared to last year. It also noted that during the period of April-December 2016-17, trade deficit stood at $76.37 billion as compared to $100.08 billion in the same period last year.

As per the Care Report, during the first 9 months of the fiscal 2016-17, the country’s exports were slightly in the positive terrain whereas imports continue to decline by around 7 per cent. It also said that for the year so far, FPI flows into equity has been positive at $2.5 billion as compared to the outflow of $2.7 billion last year same period and added that since October there have been outflows. In case of debt, report said that the picture was negative with overall outflows being $5.3 billion in these three quarters as compared to a net inflow of $2.1 billion last year. It also noted that outflows in the last three months were as high as $6.8 billion and the major withdrawals were from the government securities market which could be due to the capital gains made from a declining interest rate regime.

Talking about the FDI, Care Ratings said that FDI inflows has increased in the first half of the financial year 2016-17 by $5 billion to $21.3 billion as compared to $16.6 billion in the April-September period last fiscal. It also highlighted that FDI has been doing better than FPI flows in the last couple of years as the factors driving them are policy environment and opportunities and not linked with profit motivation unlike FPI. It also added that improving fiscal situation, inflation rate and exports growth augured well to improve sentiments for the investors.

The report further said that during the April-December period of the fiscal 2016-17, the rupee has witnessed varying trends in the last 9 months- it declined in May and June before strengthening in the next four months. It also said that the rupee declined in November and December which was also the time when the FCNR (B) outflows took place and the dollar simultaneously appreciated rapidly after Donald Trump was elected as President of USA.

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