Raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth, India’s nodal weather agency, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded its monsoon forecast to 98% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) for 2017, from 96% earlier forecasted. It also said that rainfall during the June-September period monsoon season will be normal this year.
According to the weather department, monsoon to be distributed in a very good fashion with the rainfall in central India during the June-September period expected to be 100% of LPA, in the South Peninsula to be 99% of LPA, in the North-Eastern parts of India to be 96% of LPA and, in the North-Western parts of India to be 96% of LPA.
IMD said that the probability of the total seasonal rainfall being in the near normal range of 96-104 per cent of average annual rainfall has increased to 50 per cent from 38 per cent earlier. The improved projection in the latest forecast follows the low probability of a strong El Nino condition emerging during the latter part of the four-month monsoon season.
The Met department has forecasted weak El Nino conditions in the second half of monsoon. Earlier as well IMD had forecasted that the El Nino conditions will remain neutral during monsoon season, and weaken during the second half of monsoon. The IMD though also said that some global models have suggested about 60 per cent chance of weak El Nino conditions developing during the second half of the year.
