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IMD sticks to its forecast of normal rainfall for second half of monsoon season

09 Aug 2017 Evaluate

Sticking to its ‘normal’ monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's national weather forecaster, has said that rainfall over the country during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) is expected to be 100% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 8%. It also identified that the rainfall during August is likely to be 99% of LPA with a model error of plus or minus 9%. It noted that rainfall in a range of 96-104 percent of LPA is treated as ‘normal’ for the season, while anything beyond 110% of the LPA is considered as ‘excess’.

However, the Met department has recorded an overall deficiency of minus 3% from June 1 to August 7 following which several parts of the country are witnessing drought-like conditions, especially in the southern peninsula. On the other hand, it said that states like Gujarat, Rajasthan and several parts of the northeast have witnessed floods. In its June forecast, IMD had revised monsoon forecast from 96% to 98%, citing a weakening of the El-Nino phenomenon, which heats up the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

The weather body further said that the atmospheric conditions over the Pacific Ocean continue to reflect neutral El-Nino conditions. It indicated that neutral ENSO (El-Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions are most likely till 2018 spring season with high probability (80-90%) till end of 2017. It also stated that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also neutral which is good sign for the remaining two months. 

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