Raising the possibility of higher farm output and a boost to the rains-dependent rural economy, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s national weather forecaster, has said that India would receive ‘normal’ monsoon for the third straight year. It noted that seasonal monsoon rainfall is likely to be 97 percent of the long period average (LPA) in 2018, with a margin error of plus or minus 5 percent. It added that last year, the country just about managed to receive normal rainfall-95 percent of the long-period average.
The Met department has pointed out that nearly 50 percent of India’s cultivable farm area depend on the monsoon, making it lifeline of the country’s rural economy and agriculture sector that has been lagging the overall economic growth rate. It also stated that the four-month monsoon season from June to September provides about 75 percent of annual rainfall to the country.
According to IMD, the country would not face monsoon deficit this year, there are good chances of normal rainfall with 42 percent chances of normal and 12 percent chances of above normal rainfall. It also said that there was very less probability of a deficient monsoon. As per the IMD parameter, rainfall less than 90 percent of the LPA is considered as deficient, between 90-96 percent is below normal, between 96-104 percent is normal, 104-110 percent is above normal and above 110 percent of LPA is considered as excess.