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India’s economic growth likely to moderate to 6.1-5.9% in Q4FY19: SBI Report

28 May 2019 Evaluate

Raising concern over India’s economic growth, the State Bank of India (SBI) in its Ecowrap report has said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the country is likely to moderate to 6.1-5.9 per cent in the fourth quarter ended March 2019 (Q4FY19). It added that this could pull down growth rate for the entire fiscal 2018-19 to 6.9 per cent. Besides, the slip in GDP growth may force the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to move with a deeper 0.50 per cent cut in rates at its next review to propel the sluggish economy.

The report expects gross value added (GVA) growth could be at 6 per cent or slip marginally below 6 per cent at 5.9 per cent. However, it added that the current slowdown can be ‘transitory’ if proper policies are adopted in the interim. Calling out the high real interest rates -- the differential between the policy rate and headline inflation -- as an impediment to investment, it said the RBI can cut rates by 0.35-0.50 per cent at its next policy announcement.

Talking about fourth quarter estimate of a slip in GDP growth to just above 6 per cent, the SBI report said both the investment demand and consumption demand is showing signs of moderation as revealed by various leading indicators. It added that performance of the fast-moving consumer goods sector is also lacklustre with a deceleration in demand for staples such as biscuits and soaps.

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