Macroeconomic uncertainties led to corrections in global prices of aluminium, copper, zinc: ICRA

04 Jul 2019 Evaluate

The rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that macroeconomic uncertainties led to corrections in global prices of aluminium, copper and zinc in the last one year. It also said that the production growth of these three non-ferrous metals was even lower than the rise in demand. It said even though international prices of the three non-ferrous metals viz. aluminium, copper and zinc have witnessed corrections of 20 percent, 13 percent and 16 percent, respectively in the last one year, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties on the back of ongoing trade wars and other country-specific factors, the fundamental supply-demand balance suggests otherwise.

ICRA has stated that while global consumption growth of aluminium and copper during the first quarter of 2019 was muted at 1.4 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, as against 4 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, in 2018, consumption of zinc registered a de-growth of 1.3 percent as against 0.3 percent de-growth in the last year. It also said that despite muted consumption levels, markets of the three key non-ferrous metals continued to remain in deficit in this period, with shortages in fact expanding on a Y-o-Y basis, as production growth was even lower than the growth in demand.

According to the report, the slowdown in production growth of aluminium and copper was in turn a result of capacity constraints, which is unlikely to improve significantly in 2019. It also said that production of zinc may improve in the second half of the year, which may bring the market back into a balance. It noted that for the calendar year 2019, while deficits in the aluminium and copper markets are likely to expand, the zinc market is expected to be balanced. Consequently, it said the risk of a sharp correction in base metal prices from the current levels seems low in the near term purely based on fundamentals. 

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