India’s CAD to remain largely steady at $16-17 billion in Q1FY20: ICRA

19 Jul 2019 Evaluate

ICRA in its latest report has said that India’s current account deficit (CAD) is likely to remain largely steady at $16-17 billion or 2.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of current fiscal year (Q1FY20), despite the recent contraction in merchandise exports and imports. For the FY20, the rating agency forecasted that the country’s CAD to widen to $63-68 billion, from $57.2 billion in FY19, while remaining steady at around 2.1% of GDP.

It said this de-growth is likely to persist in the immediate term, with the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in crude oil prices, and the impact of the recent customs duty hike on gold and precious metals. Such factors, in addition to the threat imposed by global trade wars, as well as sluggish domestic demand, are likely to restrict the overall growth of both merchandise exports and imports to low single digits in FY20. Besides, India’s merchandise exports and imports contracted by 1.7% and 0.3%, respectively, in Q1FY20.

As per the report, the prevailing Y-o-Y decline in crude oil prices and a temporary dip in gold imports following the tax changes introduced in the Union Budget, may well result in a contraction in aggregate merchandise imports as well as exports in July 2019. However, both these factors would contribute to a sizeable reduction in the size of the trade deficit in July 2019 to approximately $16.0-16.5 billion from the $18.6 billion recorded in July 2018, which was the highest monthly print for FY19.

ICRA further said a revival in gold imports, closer to the festive season, may push up the size of the CAD to $28-30 billion in H2 FY20, relative to the $21.5 billion recorded in H2 FY19. A sustained pick-up in the price of crude oil, which appears to be an unlikely scenario at present, remains a risk to the size of the CAD. According to report, every $1/barrel increase in the average price of crude oil in FY20, is likely to expand the CAD by around $1.6 billion.

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