India's economy likely to grow at median rate of 6% in Q1FY20: FICCI

27 Aug 2019 Evaluate

The industry chamber, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in its latest economic outlook survey has stated that India's economy is likely to grow at a median rate of 6% during the first quarter of the current financial year ended June 30 (Q1FY20). The country's economy grew at 8.2 per cent in April-June 2018-19. Besides, it pegged the annual median GDP growth forecast for 2019-20 at 6.9%, with a minimum and maximum estimate of 6.7% and 7.2%, respectively. The median is the middle number in a sorted, ascending or descending list of numbers which can be more descriptive of a data set than the average.

A majority of the participating economists in the survey suggested the RBI will continue its accomodative stance, with a further cut in the repo rate in the remaining part of 2019-20. They felt that the prevailing real interest rates were high. They also signalled that tardy deposit growth is haunting the banks as it is limiting their ability to lend and is preventing adequate transmission. The participants identified four key areas of improvement that would help create more jobs: cost of doing business; regulatory reforms; labour reforms and announcement of sector specific special packages. They observed that slower global growth will impact India's growth prospects going forward.

The survey participants unanimously indicated that India's potential growth rate would be between 7-7.5%, which is lower than the 8% plus potential growth rate estimated until a few years back. However, a majority of participants felt that potential GDP growth would settle at 7.5%. In order to achieve India's potential growth rate, the participants suggested boosting agriculture, strengthening micro, small and medium enterprises, undertaking factor market reforms and enhancing avenues for infrastructure financing.

The outlook of participants on inflation also remains benign. The median forecast for Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rate for 2019-20 has been pegged at 2.9%, with a minimum and maximum estimate of 2.1% and 5.7%, respectively. Besides, the median forecast for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.7% for 2019-20 with a minimum and maximum estimate of 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively. However, according to the survey, concerns remain on external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.3% of GDP for 2019-20. Merchandise exports are expected to grow by 3.6%, while imports are expected to grow by 4% during the year.

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