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Logistics industry likely to grow at 8-10% over medium-term: ICRA

10 Oct 2019 Evaluate

Ratings agency ICRA has said the domestic logistics industry is likely to grow at 8-10% over the medium term with the outlook remaining largely stable. The agency added the key drivers for demand pick-up will be the festive season as well as the anticipated revival in infrastructure spending post monsoon and improvement in receivable cycle of contractors.

It said the ensuing demand momentum will lead to higher freight volumes in the second half of current financial year (H2F20) despite weak macroeconomic scenario. It mentioned that industry capex towards capacity augmentation (fleet, warehousing, cold storage, terminals etc) and investments in technology to improve service offerings is estimated at Rs. 9-11 billion annually (which translates into 2-3% of operating income). The credit metrics of ICRA's sample of logistics companies are anticipated to remain comfortable.

ICRA Ratings Vice President Shamsher Dewan said ‘we expect the sector to continue to outpace the GDP growth over the medium-term, which apart from demand side factors would also be supported by supply-side positives like emergence of integrated logistics players, investments in infrastructure development - warehouses & inter-modal transport hubs and; capacity augmentation being undertaken by large logistics players.’ However, ICRA's analysis of sample of 12 large logistics players in Q1 FY20 has indicated a slowdown to 7% as compared to 11% in Q4 FY19 and 10% in Q1 FY19.

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