India faces big risk of slowdown, needs large fiscal stimulus: Kaushik Basu

11 May 2020 Evaluate

Former chief economist of World Bank -- Kaushik Basu has said that India needs a large fiscal stimulus as the country faces big risk of slowdown in the economic growth on account of COVID-19. Basu suggested that the government may need monetisation by the Reserve Bank of India. He said inequality in India is already very high and coronavirus pandemic will make it rise further. There are dark clouds over every economy in the world, and India is no exception.

He mentioned ‘we do need a large fiscal stimulus. India has the FRBM Act, 2003, for fiscal management and to make sure that government does not overspend. But the FRBM is a sophisticated piece of legislation that recognises that, during times of natural calamity, we should be allowed to run up larger deficit.’ He said the Centre must give states the freedom to spend more, respecting India's federal structure. He added that if this continues for too long, it can unleash inflation, so this will have to be a short-period intervention.

On India's strategy to exit from the lockdown, he said several countries in Europe and East Asia have started easing restrictions, and one can see the benefits they are getting from exchange rates and capital flow data. It is not easy exiting from the lockdown but if India is determined, India can do it. Further, he pointed out that when it comes to COVID-19 deaths, India's numbers are lower than in all European nations. Germany is one of the world's best managed nations but the risk of COVID-19 death in Germany is 80 times greater compared to India.

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