Indian economy to contract by 4.5% in 2020: IMF

25 Jun 2020 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update has projected a sharp contraction of 4.5 per cent for the Indian economy in 2020, a ‘historic low,’ citing the unprecedented coronavirus pandemic that has nearly stalled all economic activities. IMF's record reveals that this is the lowest ever for India since 1961. The IMF does not have the data beyond that year.

However, IMF said the country is expected to bounce back in 2021 with a robust 6 per cent growth rate. The IMF projected the global growth at -4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 WEO forecast. 

It said the COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021, global growth is projected at 5.4 per cent.  For the first time, all regions are projected to experience negative growth in 2020. In China, where the recovery from the sharp contraction in the first quarter is underway, growth is projected at 1.0 per cent in 2020, supported in part by policy stimulus.

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