India’s exports likely to witness 10-12% decline in FY21: FIEO

26 Jun 2020 Evaluate

Amid contraction in global demand on account of COVID-19 pandemic, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has said that India’s exports are likely to witness a 10-12% year-on-year decline during the ongoing fiscal (FY 2020-21), if the current trend persists. FIEO President S K Saraf said although exporters are receiving a lot of enquiries from countries where anti-China sentiments are high, demand in employment intensive sectors like gems and jewellery, apparels, footwear, handicrafts, and carpets is still a challenge. Besides, India's exports contracted by a record 60% in April and 36.47% in May.

Saraf said ‘Initially, looking into the lockdown challenges and projected decline in global trade, we expected 20% decline in our exports. However, two days back, the WTO (World Trade Organisation) trade estimates for the second quarter puts the contraction only at 13%.’ He added that ‘we do not expect much improvement in demand. Therefore, we expect around 10%-12% decline in India's exports in the current fiscal.’ However, he said in case of a second wave of the pandemic, the contraction in exports may reach 20%.

He also suggested the government to focus on concluding free trade agreements with countries like the European Union, Australia and New Zealand. The government should also look at ways to re-start talks on mega trade deal RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement). It is a good time to involve in RCEP with fully protecting the national interests. India had decided not to join RCEP as negotiations failed to address several of the country's concerns. To push exports further, he suggested the export community to focus on countries which are providing demand stimulus like the US and the UK, and explore opportunities in countries having anti-China sentiments like the EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.

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