Indian economy in deep trouble; growth likely to contract 5% this year: S&P Global Ratings

29 Jun 2020 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings in its report titled 'Asia-Pacific losses near $3 trillion as balance sheet recession looms’ has said Indian economy is in deep trouble with growth expected to contract by 5 percent in this year before rebounding in 2021 on account of difficulties in containing the virus, an anemic policy response, and underlying vulnerabilities, especially across the financial sector. It projected the Asia-Pacific region's economy to shrink by 1.3 per cent in 2020, but grow by 6.9 per cent in 2021.

It said Asia-Pacific has shown some success in containing COVID-19 and, by and large, responded with effective macroeconomic policies. This can help cushion the blow and provide a bridge to the recovery. However, the recovery looks set to be weighed down by indebted balance sheets. S&P said one risk now looming larger is yet another ‘balance sheet recession’ in which at least one important sector of the economy -- the government, firms, or households -- tries to bolster its weak financial position by saving more, paying down debt, and spending less.

The pandemic caused a sudden stop in activity and to prevent a collapse, policymakers, helped by banks, have provided extraordinary financial support to firms and households. Banks may lend less than they normally would in a recovery to focus on the overhang from the pandemic. Private firms may prefer to stabilize debt rather than ramp up spending on new investments, even though demand is improving.

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