Decline in sales volume to materially dent credit metrics of automotive dealers in FY21: Crisil

09 Jul 2020 Evaluate

Ratings agency Crisil in its latest report has said that two consecutive years of double-digit decline in sales volume and a 50-100 basis points moderation in already thin operating profitability are expected to materially dent the credit metrics of automotive dealers this fiscal. In a report based on the analysis of 2,051-Crisil-rated dealers, it said vehicles sales, which dropped 18% in 2019-20, are likely to shrink by around a quarter this fiscal owning to COVID-19 pandemic coupled with weak business environment amid restricted mobility and curtailed discretionary spending.

Also, the ability of automotive dealers to withstand such demand contraction has reduced because of lower sales volume per dealer, given the aggressive dealership expansions adopted by the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) over the past six fiscals. It said in fiscal 2021, a sharp decline in vehicle sales volume and ancillary income will lead to a 50-100 basis points moderation in operating profitability because of sub-optimal coverage of fixed costs. This drop is substantial, considering the thin operating margin of 3-4% of dealers and around 50 basis points moderation already seen last fiscal.

The report said dealers with own showrooms and those with higher mix of the more profitable ancillary services will be better placed to withstand the shock. As per Crisil Ratings, the ancillary revenue, comprising spare parts and insurance, amounts to 10-12 per cent of the total revenue. It said commercial vehicle (CV) dealers are expected to be the most impacted due to the sharpest drop expected in sale volumes and lower profitability of 2-3%, compared with passenger vehicle (PV) and two-wheeler (2W) dealers. Tepid sales, carry-over stocks of BS-IV vehicles (mainly 2Ws and PVs), and squeeze in profitability will lead to net losses in the first half of the fiscal, increasing their reliance on working capital lines, and impacting liquidity position for most dealers.

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