Downside risks to growth remains significant in FY21 with uncertain duration of pandemic: RBI

27 Jul 2020 Evaluate

Expressing cautiousness over economic growth of the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its half-yearly Financial Stability Report (FSR) has said that the exact duration of how long COVID-19 pandemic will last is still uncertain, therefore the downside risks to growth remain significant in fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21). The RBI had earlier said the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will contract in FY21, but did not give any number on the same.

The central bank said a full restoration in economic activity would be contingent upon the support for robust health infrastructure, recovery in demand conditions and fixing of supply dislocations. Additionally, it said the state of global factors like trade and financial conditions will also have a bearing on the recovery. It noted that the near-term economic prospects appear severely impacted by lockdown induced disruptions to both supply and demand side factors, diminished consumer confidence and risk aversion. Despite the steps taken by financial sector regulators and the government to ensure financial intermediation functions normally, and distress faced by disadvantaged sections of society is mitigated, the downside risks to short term economic prospects were classified as high.

The RBI said even though borrowing costs have ebbed and illiquidity premia have shrunk, risk aversion and lackluster demand have impeded the fuller flow of finance from both banks and non-banks into the economy. It can be noted that India has been put under lockdown from March 25 and is yet to be unlocked fully. The lockdowns have restricted economic activities, affecting the overall GDP. The report said the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in its pan global impact and the toll it is taking on life and livelihood, and added that the financial markets have broadly stabilised in response to fiscal and monetary stimulus in India.

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