High frequency indicators showing material improvement, pointing towards V-shaped recovery: CII

29 Jul 2020 Evaluate

The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has said that high frequency indicators are showing a material improvement as against multi-year low seen in April, and pointing towards a V-shaped recovery after the economy suffered on account of lockdown amid the coronavirus pandemic. It noted that a clutch of indicators including GST collections, railway freight traffic, petrol consumption, peak power demand, electronic toll collections, among others, have all mirrored the incipient signs of recovery.

CII further said although it is not possible to predict the course of the pandemic, a dashboard approach, triggering predictable responses based on the progression of infections, can reduce uncertainty and boost both consumer and industry confidence, which in turn will support demand and investment recovery. Also, it said in order to ensure that the supply chains function seamlessly across state and district boundaries, including the containment zones, the latter should be limited to micro areas instead of a wider area. On its part, the government has played a big role in driving the nascent recovery process by providing direct cash and food transfers to the rural and urban poor. In a significant confidence building measure, it is encouraging to note that the government dues to the industry have started coming in, which are likely to serve as a big and a direct liquidity booster to industry.

The industry body said other marquee schemes announced as a part of the Atmanirbhar stimulus package, such as the Rs 3 lakh crore collateral free loan for MSMEs & other businesses and the Rs 30,000 crore special liquidity scheme for NBFCs/HFCs/MFs have all taken off well. It also said that it is pertinent to note that the recession staring at economy in the current year is different from the previous recorded episodes of recession which were all triggered by a monsoon failure.

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