ICRA predicts 2-wheeler sales to fall 16-18% in FY21

07 Aug 2020 Evaluate

Ratings agency ICRA has revised downwards sales forecast for two-wheelers in India, expecting it to fall by 16-18 percent to around 1.7 crore units in the current financial year (FY21). It has attributed the revision in sales forecast to overall macroeconomic scenario, the COVID-19 demand-supply disruptions, looming income uncertainties and increased cost of ownership of BS-VI vehicles. Earlier, it had said that two-wheeler (2W) sales could decline by 11-13 percent in this fiscal.

According to the report, the aggregate capacity utilisation levels for the industry sample is expected to decline to 55-60 per cent from around 70 per cent. However, it said despite moderation, the 2W OEMs will continue to have strong credit profiles characterised by healthy return on capital employed (ROCE) -- average ranging between 18-20 per cent -- and comfortable balance sheets with negligible debt and strong cash and liquid investments. While any major expansion plans are expected to be deferred till the demand recovers sufficiently, it is expected that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will continue investing in new product development and network expansion.

ICRA further said despite the overall muted macro-economic sentiments, on the positive side, the rural economy offers some growth off-shoots in the form of healthy rabi output and lower COVID-19 impact. It also said higher farm income has led to sequential pick-up in 2W demand in June and July 2020. After a timely onset, monsoon progress remains healthy across most regions. It noted that these factors coupled with government's various agri-focused initiatives, are expected to support farm cash flows and 2W demand. It added that in the urban markets, which have been more severely impacted by the pandemic, a preference towards personal mobility could push near-term 2W demand.

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