Care Ratings in its latest report has said that India's pharmaceutical sector is looking at an opportunity to the tune of $10 to 11 billion in the form of COVID-19 vaccine supply, in both domestic and export markets in the next three years. However, it said the Indian vaccine makers are unlikely to get the premium pricing being enjoyed by US-based multinational companies which are anywhere between $15 and 25 per dose, their average realization could remain anywhere between $3.25 and $3.50 per dose.
According to the report, the majority of domestic demand is expected to be fulfilled by March 2022, when the export opportunities in the high-income markets such as Europe, North America, and developed Asian countries are likely to be completely exhausted. However, it said the export opportunities in various African, Asian excluding China and Japan and some South American countries, where the pace of vaccination remains very slow would still exist, which is expected to remain greater than 1.25 billion doses.
The report further said as the majority of the Indian populace is expected to get vaccinated during 2021, the opportunity for domestic pharma companies for this period is about $4.6 billion. However, it said the same is expected to increase to $4.9 billion during 2022 with an increase in exports. Furthermore, it said with near saturation of demand, the sales opportunity is expected to come down to about $1.6 billion during 2023, thus, $10-11 billion worth of opportunity for Indian vaccine manufacturers during 2021-2023.
