Growth rate can decline below 6% in 12th five year plan due to policy logjam: Plan Panel

24 Dec 2012 Evaluate

The Plan panel has warned that the constant policy logjam could pull down the annual average economic growth rate in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) to 5-5.5 percent, from 7.9 percent recorded in the 11th Plan. The 12th Plan draft document which will be placed before the National Development Council (NDC), the country's apex body to approve the five year plan later in the week, states that if government pursues well designed strategy, the annual average growth rate in the 5-year policy period could move up to 8.2 percent.

The plan document suggested three economic scenarios, in which one of scenario states that the 8.2 percent average growth rate in 12th Plan can meet the aspirations of the people of this country, "insufficient action" on the part of government would restrict the annual average growth rate in 12th Plan to 6-6.5 per cent, while in the policy logjam scenario, 'the growth rate can drift down to 5-5.5 percent'.

The strategy for the full plan would aim at raising agriculture output to 4 percent and manufacturing sector growth to 10 percent. It also wants that all the states should set up higher target of growth than what was achieved in the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12). The document has pegged the aggregate Plan resources at 37.16 lakh crore during the five year period.

The document intends to bring down poverty by 10 percentage points by the end of the 12th Plan and generate five crore new jobs in non-farm sector and has emphasized that that efforts should be made to increase investment in insurance sector to 9 percent of the GDP by the end of the Plan period.

Other targets of the 12th plan document include the increase of green cover by one million hectare every year and adding 30,000 MW of renewable energy generation capacity in the Plan period and reducing emission intensity of the GDP in line with the target of 20-25 reduction by 2020 over 2005 levels.

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