IMF reduces India’s economic growth projection to 6.8% in 2022

12 Oct 2022 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its annual World Economic Outlook report has cut its projection of India’s economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent - a 0.6 percentage point downgrade since the July forecast, reflecting a weaker-than-expected outturn in the second quarter and more subdued external demand. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).

The IMF said global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 per cent in 2021 to 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 2.7 per cent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001, except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. It said the economic growth projections reflect significant slowdowns for the largest economies: a US GDP contraction in the first half of 2022, a euro area contraction in the second half of 2022, and prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China with a growing property sector crisis.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF, in his forward to the WEO released said ‘The global economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the lingering effects of three powerful forces: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China’.  More than a third of the global economy will contract in 2023, while the three largest economies - the United States, the European Union, and China - will continue to stall. He said ‘In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession’. Growth rate projections for China is 3.2 per cent, down from 8.1 per cent growth rate in 2021.

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