Markets likely to start holiday truncated week on optimistic note

Indian markets ended higher on Friday as comments from a Federal Reserve official raised hopes that the Fed will stick with a 25-bps rate hike at its next meeting in March. Today, markets are likely to start holiday truncated week is likely to be optimistic following firm global cues. Markets will remain close on March 07 on account Holi. Foreign fund inflows likely to support markets. The National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 246.24 crore on March 3. Traders will be taking some encouragement as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India's goods and services exports are expected to cross $750 billion this fiscal despite the global economic uncertainties. Traders may take note of private report that India's macroeconomic stability indicators will gradually improve in FY24 owing to a combination of factors. It said a combination of easing in global commodity prices (YoY terms), healthy growth mix (more capex driven), and fiscal and monetary policy on a consolidating path create the basis for the trend in macro stability indicators to improve. However, traders may be concerned as the Reserve Bank of India said India’s foreign exchange reserves dropped $325 million to $560.942 billion as of February 24, making it the fourth consecutive week of decline in the kitty. There may be some cautiousness as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar conveyed to his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang at a meeting that the state of India-China relations is ‘abnormal’ as their talks focused on addressing the challenges in bilateral ties, especially that of peace and tranquility in the border areas. There will be some buzz in oil & gas sector stocks The Centre hiked the windfall profit tax levied on crude petroleum to Rs 4,400 per tonne from Rs 4,350. The special additional excise duty on diesel has been reduced to Rs 0.5 a litre from Rs 2.5, while it has been slashed to nil on ATF (Aviation Turbine Fuel). Railways stocks with report that slow freight growth in the second half of FY23 continued to impact railways, with freight volumes in February at 124 million tonnes (mt), just 3.55 per cent higher than the same period last year. There will be some reaction in real estate industry stocks with private report that the size of the country's real estate industry is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030 from $200 billion in 2021.

The US markets closed higher on Friday as US Treasury yields eased and economic data helped investors look past the growing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its restrictive policy in place until late in the year. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday ahead of an update on the US rate outlook from the world's most powerful central banker, and a jobs report that could decide if the next hike needs to be super-sized.

Back home, bouncing back from the previous day's fall, Indian equity benchmarks witnessed a relief rally and ended with strong gains of over one and a half percent on Friday, tracking supportive global cues. After the gap up start, markets gradually inched higher as the session progressed, as traders took encouragement after Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran expressed hope that the GDP growth for the current financial year will exceed the projected 7 per cent in view of the expected revision of high frequency data. Sentiments remained up-beat as a private business survey showed activity in India's dominant services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 12 years in February on strong demand as price pressures eased further amid mild job rises & capacity pressures in the country. The S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February, its highest since February 2011. It was above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for a 19th straight month, its longest stretch of expansion since June 2013. Markets extended gains in late afternoon deals, taking support from report stating that the Centre has taken steps to enhance exports by micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector by setting up facilitation centers across the country. It also said the export facilitation centers will provide the requisite mentoring and handholding support to the sector and also help to set up a network of entrepreneurial leaders. Foreign fund inflows added support to domestic sentiments. The National Stock Exchange’s provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 12,770.81 crore on March 2. Traders overlooked Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) data showing that listed manufacturing companies recorded lower sales growth of 10.6 per cent in the December quarter of the current fiscal (Q3FY23) as compared to 20.9 per cent in the previous quarter. The moderation in the manufacturing companies was broad-based across the industries, except for cement. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 899.62 points or 1.53% to 59,808.97 and the CNX Nifty was up by 272.45 points or 1.57% to 17,594.35.