Indian economy likely to clock 6-6.3% growth in June quarter: Moody’s

12 Jun 2023 Evaluate

Expressing views on India’s economic condition, Moody’s Investors Service has said that the Indian economy is likely to clock a 6-6.3 per cent growth in June quarter, and flagged risks of fiscal slippage arising from weaker-than-expected government revenues in the current fiscal. Moody’s Associate Managing Director Gene Fang said India has a relatively high level of general government debt at around 81.8 per cent of GDP for 2022-23, and low debt affordability. He said India has a high growth potential and its credit strengths include a stable domestic financing base for government debt, as well as a sound external position.

He noted that ‘we expect India’s growth to come in around 6-6.3 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, which remains relatively flat from the 6.1 per cent recorded in the final quarter of fiscal 2022-23’. He added while household demand is likely to see an improvement given the moderation in both headline and core inflation readings, lagged effects of higher interest rates pose some risks on gross fixed capital formation, in particular. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is an indicator of investment in the economy.

Fang said as a ‘Baa3’ rated sovereign, India’s strengths lie in its large and diversified economy with a high growth potential, which is evident in the relatively strong growth forecast this year despite the weaker global economic outlook. He said the government has largely met its fiscal objectives over the past two years, assuaging concerns on fiscal policy. On a calendar year basis, Moody’s expects growth to be 5.5 per cent in 2023, which could improve to 6.5 per cent in 2024. In its monetary policy last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected India’s GDP to expand by 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, on the back of supportive domestic demand conditions.

© 2025 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×