Expressing optimism over India’s growth prospects, the finance ministry in its latest report has said that the country will remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world in 2023-24 fiscal on the back of strong domestic fundamentals and benign inflation expectations. It also flagged that global uncertainties have been compounded by recent developments in the Persian Gulf and depending on how the situation develops, crude oil prices may push higher. Further, the relentless supply of US Treasuries and continued restrictive monetary policy in the US (with further monetary policy tightening not ruled out) could cause financial conditions to be restrictive.
The report said at current levels, US stock markets have greater downside risk than upside. If the downside risk materialises, it will have spill over effects on other markets. It said ‘Fraught geopolitical conditions can cause a general increase in global risk aversion. If these risks worsen and are sustained, they can affect economic activity in other countries, including India’. However, the report emphasised that India’s macroeconomic outlook for fiscal 2023-24 is bright and is solidly underpinned by strong domestic fundamentals. Alongside private consumption, investment demand is also firming up. There are additional growth levers in broad-based industrial growth and buoyant residential property markets. Industrial capacity utilisation has improved.
Further, the report said improved reservoir levels augur well for the upcoming Rabi season. Core inflation is declining steadily while food inflation has eased. The ministry noted that with a lower trade deficit and a comfortable forex reserves position, India’s external account looks robust. Echoing all this, Reserve Bank of India’s forward looking surveys on manufacturing, consumer confidence, employment and inflation expectations have optimistic findings.
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