FICCI lowers India's growth projection to 6.4% from 7% for FY25

17 Jan 2025 Evaluate

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in its Economic Outlook Survey has lowered India's growth projection for the current financial year (FY25) to 6.4 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in the previous round conducted during the month of September last year. The revised projection is in line with the broad expectations and reflect a notable slowdown vis--vis 8.2 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth recorded in 2023-24. 

The agricultural sector, including allied activities, is expected to grow at 3.6 per cent in 2024-25. The industry and services sectors, on the other hand, are projected to expand by 6.3 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in 2024-25. Economic activity is expected to witness an uptick in the second half of current fiscal supported by a revival in public capital expenditure, festive demand and normalization in industrial activity post monsoon.

CPI based inflation has a median forecast of 4.8 per cent for 2024-25. This is in line with the RBI’s projection in the latest monetary policy announcement in December 2024. The latest survey was conducted in December 2024 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The participating economists observed global economy in 2025 to present a reasonable growth trajectory, with an underlying note of caution.

According to the Survey participants, India's economic outlook for 2025 presents cautious optimism, amidst the backdrop of persisting external headwinds. Consumer spending is expected to gain momentum, driven by an improved outlook for the agriculture sector, which is likely to bolster rural consumption and sentiment in the first half of the next fiscal year. Food inflation which has remained elevated for over a year and strained household budgets, is expected to ease. Furthermore, monetary easing by the RBI, resulting in lower interest rates, could also provide an additional impetus to consumption.


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