US tariffs hike self-goal; impact on India will be smaller: Raghuram Rajan

04 Apr 2025 Evaluate

Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has described the reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries by the Trump administration a ‘self-goal’ and said its impact on India will be ‘smaller’. US President Donald Trump has announced the imposition of additional ad-valorem duties ranging from 10 per cent to 50 per cent on imports from all trading partners. He said ‘Let us recognise that in the short run, this will adversely affect the US economy first and foremost - it is a self-goal as footballers would say. Coming to the effects on other countries, the direct effect of any tariff on India’s exports will be to raise prices for US consumers, reducing their demand, and hence Indian growth’.

The baseline duty of 10 per cent will be effective from April 5 and the 27 per cent from April 9. Certain sectors are exempted from these duties include pharma, semiconductors and energy products. He added ‘Of course, to the extent that the US has applied tariffs on other countries also, and India is competing with producers from those countries, the overall effect will be smaller than if the tariffs had been applied only on India - since US consumers will not be able to substitute away to non-tariffed producers’.

Rajan said the long-term intent of Trump is to increase US production, but, even if feasible, that will take a long time to set up. He said the US reciprocal tariffs on India will probably be disinflationary, as India exports less and retains more goods domestically, and other countries like China try and export to India now that the US market is more closed. About India turn this crisis into an opportunity, Rajan said ‘We can certainly bring down the tariffs we have been raising - that would be beneficial to India regardless of whether it will help us negotiate down US tariffs.’ He said that more generally, India needs to understand the world has become much more protectionist, so ‘we have to be more clever about trade’.


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