Domestic demand recovery, healthy rabi output and easing inflation to improve consumption: CRISIL

14 Apr 2025 Evaluate

Crisil in its recent report has said that India's domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, supported by several positive developments. It highlighted that healthy rabi output and easing inflation in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 are likely to boost consumption demand further. The rating agency added that improved growth in capital, infrastructure and construction goods' output in the second half signals towards a gradual rise in construction /capital expenditure activity in the latter part of the fiscal, which are crucial for long-term economic growth. Meanwhile, it added, other high-frequency indicators have shown growth prospects improving in the fourth quarter. 

Crisil noted that stronger growth exhibited by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for manufacturing in the second half of the fiscal year has helped sectors such as petroleum products, machinery, and textiles to lift their production. The rating agency also noted that RBI's Quarterly Industrial Outlook survey has indicated a sequential strengthening of demand in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted in March suggested improvement in sentiment among consumers in both rural and urban areas.

However, Crisil has highlighted some risks to country's growth outlook with US tariff hike being the major concern. It has warned that slower global growth and possible reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, expected in the next three months, could impact exports. Besides, the uncertainty around the duration and frequent changes in tariffs could discourage investments.


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