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Fitch Ratings raises India’s average annual growth potential till 2028 to 6.4%

22 May 2025 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings while updating the five-year-ahead potential GDP projections has raised India’s average annual growth potential till 2028 to 6.4 per cent, from 6.2 per cent estimated in November 2023. The revision comes on the back of a sharper rise in India's labour force participation rate in recent years. While the agency expects this growth to continue, it may happen at a slower pace going forward.

It noted that ‘The Indian economy bounced back more strongly than we expected at the time of the 2023 report, suggesting a less adverse ‘scarring’ impact from the pandemic shock’. It has slightly lowered its medium-term potential GDP projections over the next five years for the 10 emerging market economies covered in the Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

It said ‘Our new projection sees growth at 3.9 per cent on a GDP weighted basis, down from 4 per cent in our previous assessment published in November 2023’, and added that ‘Our unweighted average EM10 potential growth projection is 3.1 per cent, just higher than the 2023 report’.


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