Markets likely to make gap-up opening amid de-escalating middle east conflict

24 Jun 2025 Evaluate

Indian equity markets are likely to make a gap-up opening on Monday, amid de-escalating middle east conflict after US President Donald Trump has claimed that Israel and Iran had agreed to a complete and total ceasefire soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. However, upside may be limited due to foreign fund outflows by foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Government holds extensive consultations on FTAs to safeguard industry interests: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that the government holds extensive stakeholder consultations on the free trade agreements (FTAs) and is pursuing these pacts while keeping in mind the interests of the domestic industry.

India, US trying to finalise interim trade deal before July 9: India and the US are reportedly engaged in negotiations for an interim trade deal and are trying to finalise the pact before July 9.

Finance ministry holds meeting on scaling up of Unified Lending Interface: The officials of the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank held a meeting with various stakeholders, including state government representatives, on ways to scale up Unified Lending Interface (ULI) as it has the potential to transform the credit delivery mechanism.

Iran, Israel conflict may have short-term impact on good's demand in Gulf region: Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said that the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel may have a short-term impact on demand and logistics, particularly in the Gulf region which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports.

PE, VC investments fall sharply to $2.4 billion in May: A private report said that funding by private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) entities has fallen sharply in India to $2.4 billion in May.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended in green on Monday amid hopes of rate cut. Asian markets are trading in green on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks fell over half percent on Monday, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran. A pullback in crude oil prices helped the Indian markets pare some of their morning losses, although they still ended on a negative note. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 511.38 points or 0.62% to 81,896.79 and the CNX Nifty was down by 140.50 points or 0.56% to 24,971.90.

Some of the important factors in trade:

Net direct tax collection slips 1.39% to Rs 4.59 lakh crore so far in FY26: The government data showed a decline of 1.39 per cent in net direct tax collection to Rs 4.59 lakh crore so far (from April to June 19, 2025) this fiscal year (FY26), compared to Rs 4.65 lakh crore collected in the corresponding period a year ago, owed to slowdown in advance tax mop-up and higher refunds.

EPFO adds 19.14 lakh members on net basis in April 2025: The payroll data released by the Labour Ministry has indicated that the Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) added 19.14 lakh members on a net basis in April 2025. This figure depicts a significant increase of 31.31 per cent over March 2025 and 1.17 per cent growth over April 2024.

FIIs continue buying spree: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their buying spree on June 20, logging their third highest single-day net purchase of the year with Rs 7,940.70 crore in equities. This marks the fourth consecutive day of FII inflows in June, the longest streak of the month.

Markets likely to make gap-up opening amid de-escalating middle east conflict

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