Business Confidence Index rises sharply to 149.4 in April-June period: NCAER

06 Aug 2025 Evaluate

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its Business Expectations Survey has showed that the Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose sharply to 149.4 in the April-June period of 2025-26 from 139.3 in the last quarter of 2024-25. It said the BCI is based on four components -- overall economic conditions to improve in next six months, financial position of firms will improve in the next six months, present investment climate and whether present capacity utilisation was close to or above optimal level. The share of positive responses across the four components remains above 60 per cent in the first quarter and also each component exhibited improving trend compared to the preceding quarter.

Majority of respondents expected production (78.7 per cent) and domestic sales (79.1 per cent) to increase in the next six months. It said sentiments about export of final products also improved (66.5 per cent) in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. It added percentage of firms expecting import of raw materials to rise also increased (54.3 per cent) from the preceding quarter (46.1 per cent), signalling a push in domestic production activities. Regarding sentiments about pre-tax profits, nearly 61 per cent of firms expected them to rise, indicating continued buoyancy.

However, it said buoyancy in business sentiments was not reflected in the labour markets that showed signs of stagnation with both sentiments about hiring and expectations of wage rates remaining unchanged over the next six months. The Business Expectations quarterly survey was carried out in June, covering 479 companies spread across six cities.

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