August IIP throws up an ugly surprise; grows by mere 0.6%

14 Oct 2013 Evaluate

In an ugly surprise, India's annual industrial output growth measured by index of industrial production (IIP) grew by mere 0.6% to 165.7 in the month of August from 164.7 in the same month of previous year, much lower than the street expectation of over 2% figure. After staging an exceptional growth in the previous month, factory output growth slowed down, hurt by weak investment and consumer demand. The cumulative growth for the period April-August 2013-14 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 0.1%. However, the July IIP figures were revised to 2.8% from 2.6% earlier.

The manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 75% of the index, witnessed contraction of 0.1% to 175.7 in August from 175.8 recorded in August, 2012. While, mining sector output contracted by 0.2% to 114.4 in the reported month from 114.6 recorded in August 2012. However, electricity sector output grew by 7.2% to 163.1 in the reported month from 152.2 in the same month of the previous year. The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-August 2013-14 over the corresponding period of 2012-13 has been (-) 3.4%, (-) 0.1% and 4.5% respectively.

On use based classification, capital goods production, a barometer for investments in the economy, witnessed a contraction of 2% at 245 for August as against 250.00 in the same month of the previous year. Further, Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of (-) 7.6% and 5.0% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being (-) 0.8%.

Further, disappointing data suggests that the economy still has some distance to cover before settling in a stable recovery phase, given that factory output after growing by 2.8% in the previous month has just about managed to eke out slender growth. Investors would now eye August month inflation figures which are due to be released this week and also will provide significant clues on RBI's stance in its upcoming second quarter policy review on October 29.

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