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India’s rising imports from China flags risk over widening trade deficit in 2025: GTRI

19 Dec 2025 Evaluate

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) in its report has said that India's trade deficit (difference between imports and exports) with China is likely to widen further to $106 billion in the calendar year 2025, as import growth significantly outpaces export growth to the neighbouring country. 

GTRI said that Indian shipments to China declined to about $15 billion in 2024 from about $23 billion in 2021. In 2025, country's exports to China are estimated to improve to $17.5 billion, still lower than a previous levels. On the other hand, India's imports from China have climbed much faster - to $102.6 billion in 2022, $91.8 billion in 2023 and $109.6 billion in 2024 from just $87.7 billion in 2021. In 2025, the country's inbound shipments are estimated at $123.5 billion. This has pushed India's trade deficit with China to $94.5 billion in 2024 from $64.7 billion in 2021.  

According to the GTRI, nearly 80 per cent of India's imports from China are concentrated in just four product groups - electronics, machinery, organic chemicals and plastics. During January-October 2025, India's imports from China were dominated by electronics, which totalled $38 billion. This included imports of mobile phone components ($8.6 billion), integrated circuits ($6.2 billion), laptops ($4.5 billion), solar cells and modules ($3 billion), flat-panel displays ($2.6 billion), lithium-ion batteries ($2.3 billion) and memory chips ($1.8 billion). 

Machinery imports followed at $25.9 billion, with transformers alone accounting for $2.1 billion, highlighting India's dependence on Chinese capital goods for power and industrial projects. Organic chemicals reached $11.5 billion, driven by antibiotics imports of $1.7 billion, underscoring China's dominance in pharmaceutical intermediates. Plastics imports during the period stood at $6.3 billion, including $871 million of PVC resin, while steel and steel products amounted to $4.6 billion and medical and scientific equipment added $2.5 billion.



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