Ratings agency ICRA has said that the domestic aviation industry is expected to incur a net loss of around Rs 17,000-18,000 crore in the current fiscal year (FY26) on account of a likely lower passenger traffic, among other factors. Earlier, the industry was projected to post a loss of Rs 9,500-10,500 crore in FY26. ICRA has lowered its forecast for domestic air passenger traffic growth to 0-3 percent in the current fiscal year against its earlier projection of 4-6 per cent on account of multiple factors, including Air India Boeing 787-8 plane crash in June this year and thousands of flights cancellations by IndiGo earlier this month, among others.
It also said this revision reflects a slower-than-expected traffic growth in April-November period of FY26, which was affected by cross-border escalations that affected flight disruptions and cancellations during the year, along with the (Air India) aircraft accident tragedy in June, which made travellers hesitant, particularly in the period right after the accident. The ratings agency also mentioned that it reflects the impact on business travel on account of challenges arising from US tariffs.
It said the domestic air passenger traffic for November 2025 was estimated at 1.54-crore, 8.4 per cent higher than 1.42-crore in November 2024 and 10.1 per cent higher than 1.40 crore in October 2025. Besides, It has lowered its forecast for international air passenger traffic growth for Indian carriers for this fiscal year to 7-9 per cent from its earlier projection of 13-15 per cent.
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