World Bank upwardly revises India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.2% for FY26 amid tax reforms

16 Jan 2026 Evaluate

Highlighting robust domestic demand and tax reforms, the World Bank in its flagship report ‘Global Economic Prospects’ has upwardly revised India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast by 0.9 percentage points to 7.2% for the current fiscal year (FY26), from its June projections of 6.3%. However, it said growth in the country is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2026-27. The projection is based on the assumption that the 50-per cent import tariffs by the US remain in place throughout the forecast horizon. It noted that India is likely to maintain the fastest growth rate among the world's largest economies.

The report further said that despite higher tariffs on certain exports to the United States, the growth forecast has remained unchanged relative to June projections, primarily because the adverse impacts of those tariffs will be offset by stronger momentum in domestic demand and more resilient exports than previously anticipated. The US accounts for about 12 per cent of India's merchandise exports. It added that growth is set to inch up to 6.6% in FY 2027-28, underpinned by robust services activity, as well as a recovery in exports and a pickup in investment.

On the rupee, it said India's currency has depreciated since May amid capital outflows driven by higher US tariffs and heightened trade-related uncertainty. It also said the global economy has shown notable resilience to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty. It noted that last year, stockpiling of traded goods, strong risk appetite, and a surge in artificial intelligence spending supported activity, while supply chains adapted to rising trade barriers. It said the faster-than-expected pace of growth capped a five-year global recovery from the 2020 recession unmatched in more than six decades, but this masks a sharp divergence.

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