Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Friday after the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. After making a positive start, soon indices pared their early gains and traded in a narrow range, amid mixed signals from ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the final hours of trade, weakness in IT and metal stocks dragged markets to end in negative territory.

Some of the important factors in trade:

RBI lowers FY27 GDP forecast to 6.6%: Sentiments remained downbeat as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has lowered GDP growth projection to 6.6% from 6.9% earlier for the current fiscal (FY27) and raised CPI inflation projection to 5.1% for FY27, higher from earlier estimate of 4.6%.

India’s FDI equity inflows rise 18% to $58.84 billion in 2025-26: Traders paid no attention towards the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) data, which showed that India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows rose 18 per cent to $58.84 billion in 2025-26, with investments from the United States more than doubling during the last fiscal year. 

Forex reserve at healthy $682 billion: Traders overlooked Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra's statement that India's forex reserve stood at a healthy $682.3 billion, adequate to provide import cover for about 11 months.

On the global front: European markets are trading mostly in green, following broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight. Asian markets ended in red, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and delayed US-Iran negotiations.

The BSE Sensex ended at 74243.34, down by 116.67 points or 0.16% after trading in a range of 73988.75 and 74717.57. There were 13 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Utilities up by 0.60%, Realty up by 0.58%, Healthcare up by 0.47%, Consumer Durables up by 0.45% and Bankex up by 0.39%, while Metal down by 1.62%, Telecom down by 1.52%, Basic Materials down by 0.95%, TECK down by 0.88% and IT down by 0.83% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Hindustan Unilever up by 2.10%, Axis Bank up by 1.86%, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone up by 1.82%, Bajaj Finance up by 1.75% and Asian Paints up by 0.88%. On the flip side, Trent down by 2.21%, TCS down by 1.85%, Tata Steel down by 1.78%, NTPC down by 1.46% and HCL Technologies down by 1.20% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia and concerns over inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the fourth time in a row and second time in the current fiscal year. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 5.00 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remain at 5.50 per cent. The MPC also decided to continue with the neutral stance. 

On the inflation front, CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected to be 5.1 per cent with Q1 at 4.2 per cent; Q2 at 5.1 per cent; Q3 at 5.9 per cent; and Q4 at 5.4 per cent. Core inflation is projected at 4.7 per cent for 2026-27. Excluding precious metals, core inflation is projected to be lower, suggesting that demand pressures remain contained. These forecasts are subject to upside risks due to global supply chain disruptions and uncertainty about the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon. However, adequate stock of foodgrains and satisfactory reservoir levels provide some comfort.  

On the economy front, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2026-27 is projected at 6.6 per cent, with Q1 at 6.6 per cent; Q2 at 6.3 per cent; Q3 at 6.5 per cent; and Q4 at 6.8 per cent. Prolonged global supply chain disruptions, heightened volatility in global financial markets, and weather-related shocks continue to pose downside risks to the domestic growth outlook. 

RBI further said private consumption has remained resilient so far, while fixed investment has also maintained its momentum despite rising cost pressures. Merchandise exports recorded strong growth in April 2026, notwithstanding elevated freight and insurance costs. Services exports continued to be robust. Overall, the economic situation has broadly exhibited resilience and withstood the conflict spillovers, although the impact of rising cost pressures is becoming visible. It noted that several measures undertaken by the government, including support to MSME and export sectors, efforts to ramp up domestic gas and crude supplies, encouraging use of domestically produced alternatives to imported inputs, and diversification of critical imports have strengthened the economy’s resilience to cope with external shocks.

The CNX Nifty ended at 23366.70, down by 49.85 points or 0.21% after trading in a range of 23282.65 and 23516.35. There were 23 stocks advancing against 27 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Adani Enterprises up by 2.54%, Hindustan Unilever up by 2.02%, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone up by 1.86%, Bajaj Finance up by 1.72% and Axis Bank up by 1.52%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.93%, Wipro down by 2.91%, Trent down by 2.23%, Coal India down by 1.94% and TCS down by 1.88% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading mostly in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 38.68 points or 0.37% to 10,399.00, and France’s CAC rose 40.91 points or 0.5% to 8,285.20, while Germany’s DAX lost 13.65 points or 0.05% to 24,931.30.

Asian markets settled mostly lower on Friday, with South Korea's Kospi dropped more than 5% amid a major sell-off in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks. The steep drop triggered by US chipmaker Broadcom's disappointing revenue guidance prompted the Korea Exchange to activate a sell-side ‘sidecar’ that temporarily halted program trading. Indonesian shares remained under pressure, fell more than 4% amid speculation that MSCI could downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status ahead of its June 19 review. Moreover, lingering uncertainty over US-Iran peace negotiations also kept regional markets under pressure. Meanwhile, investors were awaiting key US jobs report due later in the day.