Markets likely to make cautious start on Monday

Indian equity markets are likely to make cautious start on Monday tracking weak global cues amid concerns over the escalating US-Iran conflict in the Middle East. Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-watch approach ahead of the release of India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for May later in the day. However, some support may come as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 383.76 crore on Thursday. 

Some of the key factors to be watched: 

India Inc profit hit from West Asia tensions to halve if truce holds: Crisil Ratings said the profitability impact of the recent West Asia conflict on corporate India is likely to be about half as severe as initially feared if the US-Iran ceasefire holds and energy supplies continue to normalise. 

Commerce Ministry to discuss SEZ reforms & issues on June 30: The commerce ministry has called a meeting of stakeholders on June 30 to discuss issues related to special economic zones (SEZs). The meeting will focus on issues related to the harmonisation of export promotion schemes and SEZ reforms.

Piyush Goyal urges export councils to boost exports: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has asked export promotion councils to focus on developing a structured and coordinated action plan to expand the country's outbound shipments and access new markets.

India’s forex reserves rise to $672.59 billion: The RBI said India's forex reserves increased by $963 million to $672.59 billion during the week ended June 19. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $9.98 billion to $671.62 billion.

Indian CV industry to grow 4-6% in FY27: Ratings agency ICRA has said that Indian commercial vehicles industry is expected to register a moderate YoY growth of 4-6 per cent in wholesale volumes in FY27 with the broadened base of last fiscal likely to have some bearing on the growth momentum of this year.

On global front: US markets ended in red on Friday dragged down by a steep drop in AI-related chip stocks. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as the US-Iran war escalated once again following renewed attacks in the Middle East.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks erased most of their initial gains and managed to end marginally higher on Thursday as softening crude oil prices and a rally in global markets boosted investor sentiment. However, gains were capped by caution over the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 109.25 points or 0.14% to 77,100.47 and the CNX Nifty was up by 34.35 points or 0.14% to 24,056.00.  

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India, US review progress on interim bilateral trade agreement as tariff deadline nears: With an aim to deepen economic ties and strengthen bilateral trade, India and the United States (US) reviewed the progress on an interim bilateral trade agreement during the two-day ministerial meeting.

Sales growth of listed private non-financial firms returns to double digits in FY26: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said that the sales of listed private non-financial companies grew 10.1% during financial year 2025-26. After remaining in the single digits for the last two years, the sales growth is returned to double digits in 2025-26, supported by growth in the manufacturing sector 

Closely tracking West Asia situation; discussion on interest rate hike premature: Amid ongoing geopolitical developments in West Asia, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said that the central bank is maintaining a close watch on the rapidly evolving situation in West Asia and at this stage, discussion on interest rate hike is premature.