The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in its reports has flagged possible strain on Indian energy system due to this year's El Nino, a recurrent weather pattern that drives up global temperatures. It highlighted that the falling winds and rainfall associated with El Nino will reduce the country's power generation from turbines and hydropower, while the warmer temperatures will increase the demand for power-hungry air conditioning. It added that India has just faced one of its hottest summers on record, which pushed power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Nino is expected to put even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming.
Considering the lost output from renewables and increased power demand, it pointed that India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh (terrawatt hour). Besides, it estimates the extra coal generation of 24 TWh, which is roughly half of India's entire increase in coal burn last year, in the most severe scenario. However, the surge in coal-fired power may result in release of an estimated 17 million tonne of CO2. Moreover, the India's coal-fired power plants are facing serious challenges in keeping up with the energy demand curve and operating with the flexibility the grid requires throughout the day. As a result of this inflexibility, grid operators curtailed around 2.1 TWh of solar and wind last year just to keep coal plants running.
Therefore, to meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably, CREA has emphasized on continuing the target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 and fast track the batteries capacities and grid upgrades. Moreover, it pointed that solar generation is less affected by El Nino. Hence, additional solar panel and battery capacities will help India to future-proof the grid against extreme weather pattern. Meanwhile, solar power meets 24% of India daytime power demand.
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