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IMF revises India’s growth projection to 6.4% for FY27

09 Jul 2026 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its July update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO), has said that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.4 per cent in fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), 10 basis points (bps) lower than its 6.5 per cent growth projection in the April Outlook. It noted that higher energy prices may offset the resilience in the country's economic activity. It further projected India’s economy to grow at 6.7 per cent in FY28, 20 basis points higher than the 6.5 per cent growth projected in the April Outlook.

According to the IMF, India remains among the fastest-growing major economies, with growth projected at 6.4 per cent, supported by strong momentum in private consumption and services activity. Deniz Igan, Division Chief (World Economic Studies) said “Factors underpinning the forecast revisions are basically twofold. On the upside, we have the better-than-expected outturn in the most recent data, and we also have high-frequency indicators through April showing considerable resilience in overall economic activity.”

She added that these positive factors are more than offset in 2026 by higher energy prices in the baseline and the July update, as well as a greater pass-through of higher oil prices to fuel prices in India. She further said “Moving into 2027, the IMF expects a strengthening of the economy as the energy shock dissipates, with medium-term growth estimated at around 6.5 per cent and the output gap closing, leading to some pickup in activity.”

IMF projected global growth at 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, down from the average growth of 3.5 per cent recorded during 2024-25 and broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis compared with the forecasts made in April. The modest slowdown reflects the effects of the war in the Middle East being partly offset by accelerated demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle, supported by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and its adoption. The IMF noted that the impact varies significantly across countries, depending on their exposure to the conflict and their position in the technology value chain.

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